融中财经:B站 优质内容不惧持续亏损

来源:融资中国      日期:03-26 13:14     浏览数:5492次
融中财经:B站 优质内容不惧持续亏损

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近日,哔哩哔哩(以下简称B站,中概股,BILI.O)发布了2019年年报和2019Q4报告。

根据财报数据显示,2019年B站全年总营收达到67.8亿元人民币(约9.7亿美元),同比增长64%,与前值相差无几,但净利润亏损高达12.9亿元,同比扩大134%,相较于前值的200%,亏损有所改善,但依然数额较大。从单季来看,2019年Q4,B站亏损达3.9亿元,自2018年3月份在美国上市以来连续八个季度处于亏损状态。

那么,是什么原因导致的亏损?B站未来发展如何?

销售费用激增导致公司增收不增利

最近5年来,B站的营收平均增速高达201%,处于高速增长期;但其净利润却持续亏损,其中2019年亏损额扩大至12.9亿元,同比下滑134%。

通过分析公司的利润表,我们发现,B站持续亏损的主要原因是其期间费用的大幅增长。财报显示,2019年,B站的销售和市场营销费用为人民币11.985亿元(1.722亿美元),同比增长105%。其中,2019年第四季度达到4.132亿人民币,在经营费用中的占比上升到了51%。增加的主要原因是渠道和与Bilibili的应用和品牌相关的营销费用,包括离线活动以及公司手机游戏的促销费用,销售和市场营销人员人数的增加以及与Bilibili的电子商务业务相关的履约成本增加。从目前的趋势来看,销售与市场费用还会继续上涨。所以,短期内,B站扭亏为盈的概率并不大。

此外,该公司预计2020年第一季度总营收能达到21.5到22亿人民币。然而,如何在提供更多优质内容和吸引并服务好用户的同时有效控制成本,提高毛利率,减少亏损,是B站现阶段需要解决的一大问题。

收入结构渐趋均衡

从2019年年报中,我们不难发现,尽管移动游戏仍然是公司的主要收入来源,2019年全年为公司贡献收入接近36亿元或53.1%,但其比重较前值下滑18个百分点,2019年第四季度的占比甚至不到50%。而处于第二大主营产品的直播及增值业务,在2019年的营收为16.4亿元,贡献率为24%,较前值上升10个百分点,其中2019年第四季度, 直播和增值业务的收入占比接近30%。此外,广告收入和其他业务收入也处于稳步增长的状态。相比于2017年移动游戏业务占据公司主营收入超过80%的比例,B站的收入结构日趋均衡。

直播业务是该公司的一大特色业务。从下图可见,直播和增值服务在最近两年营收增速较为明显,这主要是因为B站直播的付费用户数量有所增加,以及广告服务、公司高级会员计划和其他增值服务的带动等。其中,通过充值B站虚拟货币形成的收入,包括充值大会员,对Up主和主播的打赏等是增值服务的主要组成部分。

图表 1:2015年-2019年B站各业务收入构成(%)

数据来源:公司财报、融中研究

MAU八个季度呈现增长

移动互联网时代是“用户为王”的时代,谁先抓住用户,谁就先一步抓住市场,赢得竞争。

自2018年初上市以来,B站的用户数据呈现8个季度的增长。具体来看,其MAU(average monthly active users,月平均活跃用户)在2019年第四季度达到1.303亿,同比增长40.4%,其中,移动用户达1.16亿,同比增长46%,在互联网服务行业内均处于领先水平。B站用户数的大幅增长背后是其推出的高质量内容和用户增长策略的积极执行。

此外,B站MPU(average monthly paying users,月平均付费用户)持同步增长趋势。根据财报显示,2018年第一季度,B站MPU为250万人,到了2019年第四季度达到880万人次,占MAU比重从3.23%上升至6.75%,呈现缓慢但持续增长的趋势,可见付费用户转化率发展良好。B站的付费用户不仅包括大众熟知的“大会员”,充值B站虚拟货币对Up主、主播打赏,在哔哩哔哩漫画、猫耳FM消费的人都属于B站付费用户。

B站CFO樊欣曾表示“将继续把快速增长的流量转化为付费用户,提供多样化的优质内容和服务。”

图表 2:2018Q1-2019Q4用户增长变化趋势图

数据来源:公司财报,融中研究

当前,中国疫情防控加速,“宅经济”时代到来。B站似乎对在2020年第一季度的用户增长一点也不感到担心。因为,在疫情期间,无论是用户流量、用户参与度还是花费的时间都超出了预期。疫情期间,哔哩哔哩相继推出“B站不停学”、“宅草莓音乐节”、“B站*央视新闻共同战疫”等内容,期间用户使用时长与直播流量增长明显。据QuestMobile,2月17日-2月23日,B站直播用户单日使用时长达190分钟,明显高于抖音与快手直播。此外,B站游戏业务大概率受益于疫情期间的游戏流量增长。

B站对于用户增长有精心制定的计划,因此其增长率大概率不会因复工出现剧烈波动,其董事长陈睿表示,到2020年底,B站用户将增长到1.8亿人。

优质内容不惧亏损

在内容为王的时代,B站不惜重金打造优质内容。

B站早期是一个ACG(动画、漫画、游戏)内容创作与分享的视频网站。经过十年多的发展,围绕用户、创作者和内容,构建了一个源源不断产生优质内容的生态系统,B站已经涵盖7000多个兴趣圈层的多元文化社区,目前拥有动画、番剧、国创、音乐、舞蹈、游戏、科技、生活、娱乐、鬼畜、时尚、放映厅等15个内容分区。曾获得QuestMobile研究院评选的“Z世代偏爱APP”和“Z世代偏爱泛娱乐APP”两项榜单第一名。

不仅如此,B站还提供学习内容,正逐渐成为年轻人学习的首要阵地。2019年,用户在B站直播学习时长突破200万小时,泛知识学习类内容的观看用户数突破5000万,相当于2019年高考人数的5倍。此外,大批专业科研机构也纷纷入驻B站。中科院物理所以账号“二次元的中科院物理所”上线B站,通过趣味科学分享,2个月揽获超27万粉丝。

在直播领域,B站天然就占据一定优势:拥有大量Up主和虚拟主播。

Up主本就拥有一定可观的粉丝数量,他们可以通过制作原创视频从各大视频分区拉拢人气,但总体而言比不上专门直播平台主播的人气。虚拟主播是B站不得不提的一大优势。随着虚拟主播越来越火,自然会带来部分流量。此外,虚拟主播不存在生活作风、公关问题等不良影响,并且与B站二次元文化极其贴合,极有前景。

目前来看,B站更多的是在游戏直播加大投入。仅2019年年底,B站打败虎牙、斗鱼等老牌游戏直播平台,以8亿元价格拍得了《英雄联盟》全球总决赛S10至S12连续三年(2020—2022年)的国内独家直播版权;引进直播行业极具代表性的冯提莫。

虽然B站本有的ACG文化属性让游戏直播和该网站极为贴合,但现在游戏直播的头部主播仍然集中在虎牙、斗鱼等平台,B站要想继续在直播领域有所扩张,还需要继续加大投入。

在2019年第四季度财报公布后的电话会议中,B站COO李旎表示,随着B站知名度的持续增长,对于众多广告商而言,该网站日益成为内容垂直平台、接触年轻受众的必备投资渠道。例如近年一个明显趋势是,B站成为许多新产品发布的首选平台之一。阿里系在B站上的鬼畜营销以及腾讯的加入也足以证实B站知名度的增长及其在年轻受众中的影响。

左腾讯右淘宝,B站的变现路更宽广

B站的前5大股东中,3位是自然人股东,分别是陈睿、徐逸和林利军;2位机构股东:腾讯和淘宝。

2018年10月3日,腾讯宣布向B站进行共3.176亿美元现金的投资。2020年2月14日,B站向美国SEC递交的文件显示,腾讯通过旗下子公司持有B站43,749,518股Z类普通股,占Z类股的比例为18%,占B站总股本13.5%,依然为其第二大股东。

在腾讯入股B站后的2018年10月25日,双方宣布,将在动画、游戏等方面广泛展开合作,主要包括:腾讯与B站在版权方条件许可的情况下互相开放动画片库;腾讯与B站在动画项目的采购、参投、自制方面,建立深度联合机制。合作形式包括分摊成本、同步首播、开放优先投资权等;腾讯与B站在ACG产业链上下游方面,同步新的行业投资机会,积极促成共同投资。此外,腾讯还将与B站在游戏联运方面讨论更多的合作可能性。

图表 3:大股东列表

数据来源:Wind,融中研究

淘宝与B站的合作更为直接。

公开数据表明淘宝上泛二次元人群已经过亿,其中超五成属于95后和00后。B站上一大批拥有百万粉丝的原生UP主正加速入驻淘宝,而淘宝二次元平台也为他们量身定制了全方位商业化方案。此前B站通过广告、打赏、奖励等等来激励这个群体,如今有了更有力的,通过在淘宝二次元平台上推出与UP主们自身特点相契合的产品,用联名、相关周边衍生品开发等多种方式,为UP主的内容能力找到最适合的商业化场景。借助淘宝这个巨大的平台,未来或许有更多人看到B站UP主的强大创造力与优质内容。

左腾讯右淘宝,B站的变现路将更加宽广。

尽管B站近几年一直持续亏损,但由于其自身和股东带来的超强的变现能力,前景依然看好。当然,作为游戏公司,面临着一定的政策风险,需要投资者加以防范。

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