财经观察:英国服务业:一“疫”易荣枯

来源:新华社      日期:03-26 15:02     浏览数:9550次
财经观察:英国服务业:一“疫”易荣枯

新华社伦敦3月25日电财经观察:英国服务业:一“疫”易荣枯

新华社记者于佳欣 王慧慧

空空荡荡的街道,寥寥无几的行人,暂停营业的通知,紧闭的酒吧大门……这是近两日新冠肺炎疫情中的英国一瞥。这种萧瑟味道,从英国近日服务业数据中也能嗅出一二。

英国信息提供商IHS马基特公司日前公布了3月份英国采购经理人指数(PMI)数据,显示服务业表现远不及预期。相比上个月的53.2,3月服务业PMI为35.7,跌破50的荣枯线,创历史新低。

疫情在全球扩散,对经济特别是餐饮、旅游等服务业冲击巨大。而服务业占英国国内生产总值(GDP)比重约八成,堪称英国经济的引擎,疫情对服务业发展的冲击堪称一记“重拳”。

目前英国新冠肺炎确诊病例数突破8000,如今政府已要求民众停止一切不必要的外出,要求出售非生活必需品的商店全部停业,决定建临时医院。

“随着大规模关店和隔离措施的实施,新冠肺炎疫情对经济影响的讨论,开始从对供应链和制造业的影响转到给服务业带来的损失上。”凯投国际宏观经济咨询公司全球经济服务主管珍妮弗·麦基翁说。

英国苏格兰知名手工啤酒品牌“酿酒狗”此前发布声明说,受疫情影响,公司收入损失约70%,未来将面临一场“生存之战”。

英国一些零售商也陆续宣布关闭实体店或停止营业。连锁便利店史密斯公司认为,疫情或导致其年利润减半,预计三、四月份收入将大幅下降。

根据总部位于旧金山的提供在线餐厅预订服务的公司Open Table统计,在疫情影响下,全球餐饮需求停滞不前,包括英国和美国在内的全球主要经济体餐饮预订几乎停止。

一些经济学家警告,监测数据显示,目前英国商业活动跌至历史低点,由于疫情发展的不确定性,未来可能造成严重经济衰退。

由于IHS马基特公司的数据采集时间在英国政府宣布关闭所有非必要商店之前,IHS马基特首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森预计,考虑到政府后来采取了更严厉的抗疫措施,二季度数据会更不乐观。

为应对疫情给经济带来的负面影响,英格兰银行连续两次降息至0.1%的历史低位;英国政府还承诺,为企业提供3300亿英镑(1英镑约合1.2美元)的贷款。

业内人士指出,尽管政府出台了一系列支持企业的举措,但疫情对经济的影响最终还取决于遏制措施的持续时间,比如为防止疫情再次暴发而延长遏制措施的时间。

瑞银资产管理(英国)有限公司全球债券基金主管赵子仪说,伦敦作为全球重要的金融中心,疫情对英国金融市场的影响不可小觑。随着政府加大抗疫力度,遭受疫情打击的服务业可能显示出比制造业更长期的收缩迹象。(完)

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